How Does Terrorism Risk Vary Across Space and Time? An Analysis Based on the Israeli Experience

36 Pages Posted: 21 Feb 2007

See all articles by Claude Berrebi

Claude Berrebi

Hebrew University of Jerusalem - School of Public Policy; Hebrew University - School of Public Policy ; Princeton University; UCLA; RAND Corporation; Taub Center

Darius N. Lakdawalla

University of Southern California - Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics; RAND Corporation; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: June 2006

Abstract

We study the spatial and temporal determinants of terrorism risk in Israel, using a geocoded database of Israeli terrorist attacks from 1949 to the present. In selecting targets, terrorists seem to respond rationally to costs and benefits: they are more likely to hit targets more accessible from their own homebases and international borders, closer to symbolic centers of government administration, and in more heavily Jewish areas. We also examine the waiting time between attacks experienced by localities. Long periods without an attack signal lower risk for most localities, but higher risk for important areas like regional or national capitals.

Keywords: Terrorism Risk, spatial, temporal, Israel, Palestinian

JEL Classification: D74, N4

Suggested Citation

Berrebi, Claude and Lakdawalla, Darius N., How Does Terrorism Risk Vary Across Space and Time? An Analysis Based on the Israeli Experience (June 2006). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=964345 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.964345

Claude Berrebi (Contact Author)

Hebrew University of Jerusalem - School of Public Policy ( email )

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Hebrew University - School of Public Policy ( email )

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Israel
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Darius N. Lakdawalla

University of Southern California - Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics ( email )

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