Projections of Chinese Energy Demands in 2020

30 Pages Posted: 26 Feb 2007  

F. Gerard Adams

Northeastern University - D’Amore-McKim School of Business

Yochanan Shachmurove

City University of New York, CUNY City College of New York - Department of Economics; The University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics

Date Written: February 2007

Abstract

As current trends of Chinese economic growth and motorization continue, its demand for higher efficiency fuels (oil, gas, and electric power) will increase. This, coupled with China's limited domestic production, can translate into a massive demand for energy imports. To predict China's energy demand into 2020, an econometric model of the Chinese energy economy is constructed based on its energy balance. This paper suggests that China's increase demand for energy imports will be most sensitive to increases in motorization rather than economic growth. It can be partially offset by increasing domestic energy production or energy efficiency.

Keywords: China; Energy; Energy Demand; Petroleum and Coal; World Energy Markets; Motorization; Energy Efficiency

JEL Classification: Q3, Q4, F1, F2, F4, L9, N7, O53, P28

Suggested Citation

Adams, F. Gerard and Shachmurove, Yochanan, Projections of Chinese Energy Demands in 2020 (February 2007). PIER Working Paper No. 07-012. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=965431 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.965431

F. Adams

Northeastern University - D’Amore-McKim School of Business ( email )

39 Stafford Rd.
Boston, MA 02115
617-373-2764 (Phone)
617-373-8798 (Fax)

Yochanan Shachmurove (Contact Author)

City University of New York, CUNY City College of New York - Department of Economics ( email )

160 Convent Avenue
New York, NY 10031
United States
212-650-6202 (Phone)

The University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics ( email )

160 McNeil Building
3718 Locust Walk
Philadelphia, PA 19104
United States
215-898-1090 (Phone)
215-573-2057 (Fax)

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