Order Flows, News, and Exchange Rate Volatility
Leobniz Universitaet Hannover Working Paper
24 Pages Posted: 1 Mar 2007
This paper examines the roles of order flow (reflecting private information) and news (reflecting public information) in explaining exchange rate volatility. Analyzing four months of a bank's high frequency US dollar-euro trading, three order flows are used in addition to seasonal patterns in explaining volatility. We find that only larger sized order flows from financial customers and banks - indicating informed trading - contribute to explaining volatility, whereas flows from commercial customers do not. The result is robust when we control for news and other measures of market activity. This strengthens the view that exchange rate volatility reflects information processing.
Keywords: exchange rate, market microstructure, order flow, financial customer orders, volatility patterns
JEL Classification: F31, G15
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