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Predictability and the Earnings-Returns Relation

Gil Sadka

University of Texas at Dallas

Ronnie Sadka

Boston College - Carroll School of Management

August 14, 2008

This paper studies the effects of predictability on the earnings-returns relation for individual firms and for the aggregate. We demonstrate that prices better anticipate earnings growth at the aggregate level than at the firm level, which implies that random-walk models are inappropriate for gauging aggregate earnings expectations. Moreover, we show that the contemporaneous correlation of earnings growth and stock returns decreases with the ability to predict future earnings. Our results may therefore help explain the apparently conflicting recent evidence that the earnings-returns relation is negative at the aggregate level but positive at the firm level.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 44

Keywords: Valuation, profitability, predictability, asset pricing

JEL Classification: E32, G12, G14, M41

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Date posted: March 5, 2007 ; Last revised: August 24, 2011

Suggested Citation

Sadka, Gil and Sadka, Ronnie, Predictability and the Earnings-Returns Relation (August 14, 2008). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=967675 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.967675

Contact Information

Gil Sadka
University of Texas at Dallas ( email )
2601 North Floyd Road
Richardson, TX 75083
United States
Ronnie Sadka (Contact Author)
Boston College - Carroll School of Management ( email )
140 Commonwealth Avenue
Chestnut Hill, MA 02467
United States
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