Volatility Threshold Dynamic Conditional Correlations: An International Analysis
Forthcoming, Journal of Financial Econometrics
45 Pages Posted: 5 Mar 2007 Last revised: 29 Oct 2012
Date Written: April 2, 2012
This paper proposes a modeling framework for the study of changes in cross-market comovement conditional on volatility regimes. Methodologically, we extend the Dynamic Conditional Correlation multivariate GARCH model to allow the dynamics of correlations to depend on asset variances through a threshold structure. The empirical application of our model to a sample of international stock markets in 1994-2011 indicates that the periods of market turbulence are associated with an increase in cross-market comovement. The modeling framework proposed in the paper represents a useful tool for the study of market contagion.
Keywords: Dynamic Correlations, Volatility Thresholds, Comovement, Contagion
JEL Classification: C50, F37, G11, G15
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation