Capital Controls, the Dual Exchange Rate, and Devaluation

34 Pages Posted: 6 Mar 2007 Last revised: 16 Aug 2010

See all articles by Maurice Obstfeld

Maurice Obstfeld

University of California, Berkeley; Peterson Institute for International Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research

Date Written: April 1984

Abstract

This paper re-examines the effect of devaluation under capital-account restrictions, adding to traditional formulations the seemingly minor (but realistic) assumption that central-bank reserves earn interest. The extra assumption has important implications. In an intertemporal model, devaluation is no longer neutral in the long run as it is in the literature on the monetary approach to the balance of payments. Further, the economy may possess multiple stationary states, some of them unstable.The analysis confirms, however, that even large devaluations must improve the balance of payments if the economy is initially at a stable stationary position. A by-product of the analysis is a pricing formula for the financial exchange rate in a dual exchange rate system. That formula is consistent with recent consumption-based models of asset pricing.

Suggested Citation

Obstfeld, Maurice, Capital Controls, the Dual Exchange Rate, and Devaluation (April 1984). NBER Working Paper No. w1324. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=968634

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