Empirical Modeling of Deprivation Contagion among Social Exclusion Dimensions (Using MCMC Methods)

17 Pages Posted: 11 Mar 2007

See all articles by Ambra Poggi

Ambra Poggi

LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies

Xavier Ramos

Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Date Written: February 2007

Abstract

Economic theory and empirical evidence clearly show that social exclusion dimensions are inter-related. Notwithstanding that, dimensions are usually assumed independent from one another in the economics literature. In this paper we explore the inter-dependency of social exclusion dimensions and study the transmission of deprivation among them. In particular, we propose the use of stochastic epidemic models, which are typically used to study the transmission of infectious diseases, to the analysis of deprivation diffusion among social exclusion dimensions with the aim of acquiring a deeper understanding of the mechanism governing deprivation transmission. We also provide an empirical implementation that investigates the consequences, in terms of future deprivation, for Italian and Spanish women of being jobless, as opposed to doing paid work. We also investigate the consequences of being unemployed versus being inactive. We conclude that working seems to act as a protective mechanism to shocks. In addition, conditional on losing one's job, women who subsequently search for a job (unemployed) are more likely to experience contagion than women who do not search (inactive).

Keywords: deprivation, social exclusion, contagion models, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, metropolis-Hastings algorithm, stochastic models, propensity score

JEL Classification: C11, C15, I30

Suggested Citation

Poggi, Ambra and Ramos, Xavier, Empirical Modeling of Deprivation Contagion among Social Exclusion Dimensions (Using MCMC Methods) (February 2007). IZA Discussion Paper No. 2614. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=969397

Ambra Poggi

LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies ( email )

Via Real Collegio 30
10024 Moncalieri
Italy

Xavier Ramos (Contact Author)

Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona ( email )

Dept. Economia Aplicada
Campus UAB
Bellaterra, Barcelona 08193
Spain

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
81
Abstract Views
895
rank
305,381
PlumX Metrics