The Impact of the Recent Migration from Eastern Europe on the UK Economy

63 Pages Posted: 11 Mar 2007

See all articles by David G. Blanchflower

David G. Blanchflower

Dartmouth College - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); IZA Institute of Labor Economics; Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics

Jumana Saleheen

Bank of England

Chris Shadforth

Bank of England

Date Written: February 2007

Abstract

UK population growth over the last thirty-five years has been remarkably low in comparison with other countries; the population grew by just 7% between 1971 and 2004, less than all the other EU15 countries except Germany. The UK population has grown at a faster pace since the turn of the millennium driven primarily by changes in net migration, and in particular from an influx of migrants from eight East European (A8) countries. There appears to be consistent evidence from the Worker Registration Scheme and National Insurance Number applications that approximately 500,000 migrants from the A8 countries had come to work in the UK between May 2004 and late 2006. But other sources suggest approximately half of these workers have likely returned to their country of origin. We argue that, at present, it appears that A8 immigration has tended to increase supply by more than it has increased demand in the UK (in the short run). This migration flow, we argue, has acted to reduce inflationary pressures and to lower the natural rate of unemployment.

Keywords: migration, UK

JEL Classification: J61, J11, J21

Suggested Citation

Blanchflower, David G. and Saleheen, Jumana and Shadforth, Chris, The Impact of the Recent Migration from Eastern Europe on the UK Economy (February 2007). IZA Discussion Paper No. 2615. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=969406

David G. Blanchflower (Contact Author)

Dartmouth College - Department of Economics ( email )

Hanover, NH 03755
United States
603-646-2536 (Phone)
603-646-2122 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics ( email )

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

Jumana Saleheen

Bank of England ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

Chris Shadforth

Bank of England ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
2,563
Abstract Views
8,387
rank
4,636
PlumX Metrics