Are Any Growth Theories Robust?

30 Pages Posted: 13 Mar 2007

See all articles by Steven N. Durlauf

Steven N. Durlauf

University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Andros Kourtellos

University of Cyprus - Department of Economics; University of Bologna - Rimini Center for Economic Analysis (RCEA)

Chih Ming Tan

University of North Dakota - College of Business & Public Administration - Department of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 7, 2007

Abstract

This paper investigates the strength of empirical evidence for various growth theories when there is model uncertainty with respect to the correct growth model. Using model averaging methods, we find little evidence that so-called fundamental growth theories play an important role in explaining aggregate growth. In contrast, we find strong evidence for macroeconomic policy effects and a role for unexplained regional heterogeneity, as well as some evidence of parameter heterogeneity in the aggregate production function. We conclude that the ability of cross-country growth regressions to adjudicate the relative importance of alternative growth theories is limited.

Keywords: Economic growth, Total Factor Productivity, Model Uncertainty

JEL Classification: C59, O40, O47

Suggested Citation

Durlauf, Steven N. and Kourtellos, Andros and Tan, Chih Ming, Are Any Growth Theories Robust? (September 7, 2007). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=969530 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.969530

Steven N. Durlauf (Contact Author)

University of Chicago ( email )

1155 East 60th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Andros Kourtellos

University of Cyprus - Department of Economics ( email )

75 Kallipoleos Street
P.O. Box 20537
1678 Nicosia
Cyprus

University of Bologna - Rimini Center for Economic Analysis (RCEA) ( email )

Via Patara, 3
Rimini (RN), RN 47900
Italy

Chih Ming Tan

University of North Dakota - College of Business & Public Administration - Department of Economics ( email )

293 Centennial Drive Stop 8369
Grand Forks, ND 58202-8369
United States

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/site/chihmingtan/home

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