Home Bias, Exchange Rate Disconnect, and Optimal Exchange Rate Policy
44 Pages Posted: 13 Mar 2007
Date Written: January 2007
Abstract
This paper examines how much the central bank should adjust the interest rate in response to real exchange rate fluctuations. The paper first demonstrates in a two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, that the home bias in consumption is important to duplicate the exchange rate volatility and exchange rate disconnect documented in the data. When home bias is high, the shock to Uncovered Interest-rate Parity (UIP) can substantially drive up exchange rate volatility while leaving the volatility of real macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, almost untouched. The model predicts the volatility of the real exchange rate relative to that of GDP increases with the extent of home bias. This relation is strongly supported by the data. Then a second-order accurate solution method is employed to solve the model and compare the conditional welfare under different policy regimes. The results suggest that the monetary authority should not seek to vigorously stabilize exchange rate fluctuations. In particular, when the central bank does not take a strong stance against the inflation rate, exchange rate stabilization may induce substantial welfare loss. The model also suggests no welfare gain from the international monetary cooperation, which extends Obstfeld and Rogoff's (2002) findings to a DSGE model.
Keywords: Home bias, Exchange rate volatility, Exchange rate disconnect, Optimal monetary policy
JEL Classification: E52, F31, F41
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?
Recommended Papers
-
By Maurice Obstfeld and Alan C. Stockman
-
By Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff
-
Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?
By Varadarajan V. Chari, Patrick J. Kehoe, ...
-
Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy
By Jordi Galí and Tommaso Monacelli
-
Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy
By Jordi Galí and Tommaso Monacelli
-
Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy
By Jordi Galí and Tommaso Monacelli
-
New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models
By Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff
-
Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange Rate Flexibility