Real Options with Uncertain Maturity and Competition

51 Pages Posted: 23 Mar 2007 Last revised: 1 Jul 2021

See all articles by Kristian R. Miltersen

Kristian R. Miltersen

Copenhagen Business School

Eduardo S. Schwartz

Simon Fraser University (SFU); University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Finance Area; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: March 2007

Abstract

We develop a new approach to dealing with real options problems with uncertain maturity. This type of situation is typical for R&D investments and mine or oil exploration projects. These types of projects are characterized by significant on-going investment costs until completion. Since time to completion is uncertain, the total investment costs will also be uncertain. Despite the fact that these projects include complicated American abandonment/switching options until completion and European options at completion (because of fixed final investment costs) we obtain simple closed form solutions. We apply the framework to situations in which the owner of the project has monopoly rights to the outcome of the project, and to situations in which there are two owners who simultaneously invest, but where only one of them may obtain the rights to the outcome. We expand the real options framework to incorporate game theoretic considerations, including a generalization of mixed strategies to continuous-time models in the form of abandonment intensities.

Suggested Citation

Miltersen, Kristian Risgaard and Schwartz, Eduardo S. and Schwartz, Eduardo S., Real Options with Uncertain Maturity and Competition (March 2007). NBER Working Paper No. w12990, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=975931

Kristian Risgaard Miltersen

Copenhagen Business School ( email )

Solbjerg Plads 3
Frederiksberg C, DK - 2000
Denmark

Eduardo S. Schwartz (Contact Author)

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Finance Area ( email )

Los Angeles, CA 90095-1481
United States
310-825-1953 (Phone)
310-206-5455 (Fax)

Simon Fraser University (SFU) ( email )

8888 University Drive
Burnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6
Canada

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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