Predicting Criminal Recidivism Using "Split Population" Survival Time Models

29 Pages Posted: 6 Apr 2007 Last revised: 8 Mar 2021

See all articles by Peter Schmidt

Peter Schmidt

Michigan State University

Ann Dryden Witte

Wellesley College - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: November 1987

Abstract

In this paper we develop a survival time model in which the probability of eventual failure is less than one, and in which both the probability of eventual failure and the timing of failure depend (separately) on individual characteristics. We apply this model to data on the tiring of return to prison for a sample of prison releasees, and we use it to make predictions of whether or not individuals return to prison. Our predictions are more accurate than previous predictions of criminal recidivism. The model we develop has potential applications in economics: far example, it could tie used to model the probability of default and the timing of default on loans.

Suggested Citation

Schmidt, Peter and Dryden Witte, Ann, Predicting Criminal Recidivism Using "Split Population" Survival Time Models (November 1987). NBER Working Paper No. w2445, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=977745

Peter Schmidt

Michigan State University ( email )

East Lansing, MI 48824
United States

Ann Dryden Witte

Wellesley College - Department of Economics ( email )

106 Central Street
Wellesley, MA 02181
United States
781-283-2163 (Phone)
781-283-2177 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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