Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources - Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections

46 Pages Posted: 12 Apr 2007

See all articles by Juan Zalduendo

Juan Zalduendo

World Bank

Manuela Goretti

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Bikas Joshi

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Atish R. Ghosh

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Policy Development and Review Department

Alun H. Thomas

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - European Department

Date Written: April 2007

Abstract

This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches - the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model - yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000-05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006-10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results.

Keywords: Stand-by arrangements, prediction, IMF lending capacity, IMF income position

JEL Classification: F01, F33, F34, F42

Suggested Citation

Zalduendo, Juan and Goretti, Manuela and Joshi, Bikas and Ghosh, Atish R. and Thomas, Alun, Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources - Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections (April 2007). IMF Working Paper No. 07/70, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=979024

Juan Zalduendo (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Manuela Goretti

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Bikas Joshi

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Atish R. Ghosh

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Policy Development and Review Department ( email )

700 19th St. NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Alun Thomas

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - European Department ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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