Structural Modeling of Marine Reserves with Bayesian Estimation

35 Pages Posted: 18 Apr 2007

See all articles by Martin D. Smith

Martin D. Smith

Duke University - Nicholas School of the Environment

Junjie Zhang

Duke Kunshan University; Duke University

Felicia Coleman

Florida State University

Date Written: December 2006

Abstract

Structural models can assess the effectiveness of fishery management prospectively and retrospectively. However, when only fishery-dependent data are available, structural econometric models are highly nonlinear in the parameters, and maximum likelihood and other extremum-based estimators can fail to converge. As a solution to these estimation challenges, we adapt Bayesian econometric methods to estimate dynamic a structural model of marine reserve formation. Using simulated data, we find that our approach is able to recover structural biological and economic parameters that classical estimation procedures fail to recover. We apply the approach to real data from the Gulf of Mexico reef fish fishery. We test the effects of the Steamboat Lumps Marine Reserve on population growth and catchability for gag, a species of grouper. We find that after four years, the reserve has neither produced statistically significant losses in sustainable yield nor statistically significant gains in biological production.

Keywords: marine reserves, Marine Protected Areas, Bayesian econometrics, Markov Chain Monte Carlo

JEL Classification: C11, Q22

Suggested Citation

Smith, Martin D. and Zhang, Junjie and Coleman, Felicia, Structural Modeling of Marine Reserves with Bayesian Estimation (December 2006). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=980748 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.980748

Martin D. Smith (Contact Author)

Duke University - Nicholas School of the Environment ( email )

Box 90328
A122 LSRC
Durham, NC 27708-0328
United States
919-613-8028 (Phone)
919-684-8741 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://fds.duke.edu/db/Nicholas/esp/faculty/marsmith

Junjie Zhang

Duke Kunshan University ( email )

No. 8 Duke Avenue
Kunshan, 215316
China
+86 512 36657068 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://junjiezhang.org

Duke University ( email )

No. 8 Duke Avenue
Kunshan, 215316
China
+86 512 36657068 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://junjiezhang.org

Felicia Coleman

Florida State University ( email )

Tallahasse, FL 32306
United States

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