How Overconfident are Current Projections of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions?

38 Pages Posted: 21 Apr 2007

See all articles by Klaus Keller

Klaus Keller

Princeton University - Department of Geosciences

Louise I. Miltich

Princeton University - Department of Geosciences

Alexander Robinson

Princeton University - Department of Geosciences

Richard S. J. Tol

The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin; Institute for Environmental Studies, Free University Amsterdam

Date Written: April 2007

Abstract

Analyzing the risks of anthropogenic climate change requires sound probabilistic projections of CO2 emissions. Previous projections have broken important new ground, but many rely on out-of-range projections, are limited to the 21st century, or provide only implicit probabilistic information. Here we take a step towards resolving these problems by assimilating globally aggregated observations of population size, economic output, and CO2 emissions over the last three centuries into a simple economic model. We use this model to derive probabilistic projections of business-as-usual CO2 emissions to the year 2150. We demonstrate how the common practice to limit the calibration timescale to decades can result in biased and overconfident projections. The range of several CO2 emission scenarios (e.g., from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios) misses potentially important tails of our projected probability density function. Studies that have interpreted the range of CO2 emission scenarios as an approximation for the full forcing uncertainty may well be biased towards overconfident climate change projections.

Keywords: Carbon Dioxide, Emissions, Scenarios, Data Assimilation, Markov Chain Monte Carlo

JEL Classification: Q54

Suggested Citation

Keller, Klaus and Miltich, Louise I. and Robinson, Alexander and Tol, Richard S. J., How Overconfident are Current Projections of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions? (April 2007). FEEM Working Paper No. 39.2007. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=981135 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.981135

Klaus Keller (Contact Author)

Princeton University - Department of Geosciences ( email )

Guyot Hall, Washington Road
Princeton, NJ 08544-1003
United States

Louise I. Miltich

Princeton University - Department of Geosciences ( email )

Guyot Hall, Washington Road
Princeton, NJ 08544-1003
United States

Alexander Robinson

Princeton University - Department of Geosciences ( email )

Guyot Hall, Washington Road
Princeton, NJ 08544-1003
United States

Richard S. J. Tol

The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin ( email )

Whitaker Square
Sir John Rogerson's Quay
Dublin 2
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.esri.ie

Institute for Environmental Studies, Free University Amsterdam ( email )

De Boelelaan 1115
Amsterdam, 1081 HV
Netherlands

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