Predicting Bank Failures: A Comparison of On- and Off-Site Monitoring Systems

21 Pages Posted: 24 Apr 2007 Last revised: 9 Nov 2008

See all articles by Rebel A. Cole

Rebel A. Cole

Florida Atlantic University

Jeffery Gunther

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Abstract

On-site examinations are regulators' primary tool for monitoring the financial condition of federally insured depository institutions. In this paper, we assess the speed with which the information content of the supervisory rating assigned during bank exams - the CAMEL rating - decays. This is an important issue because cost and regulatory burden considerations often cause CAMEL ratings to be assigned relatively infrequently. As a benchmark for information content, we use econometric forecasts of bank failures generated by applying a probit model to publicly available accounting data. When compared with all CAMEL ratings available at a given point in time, the econometric forecasts provide a more accurate indication of failure. Further analysis reveals that this overall finding reflects the tendency for a CAMEL rating's information content to deteriorate noticeably beginning in the second or third quarter after the rating initially was assigned.

Keywords: bank examination, bank failure, CAMEL rating, early warning system

JEL Classification: E58, G21, G28

Suggested Citation

Cole, Rebel A. and Gunther, Jeffery, Predicting Bank Failures: A Comparison of On- and Off-Site Monitoring Systems. Journal of Financial Services Research, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 103-117, 1998. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=981276

Rebel A. Cole (Contact Author)

Florida Atlantic University ( email )

College of Business
777 Glades Road
Boca Raton, FL 33431
United States
1-561-297-4969 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://rebelcole.com

Jeffery Gunther

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas ( email )

2200 North Pearl Street
PO Box 655906
Dallas, TX 75265-5906
United States

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