A Methodology to Improve the Mobile Diffusion Forecasting: the Case of Greece

11 Pages Posted: 26 Apr 2007

See all articles by Elias Aravantinos

Elias Aravantinos

Stevens Institute of Technology

M. Hosein Fallah

Stevens Institute of Technology - School of Business

Date Written: April 2006

Abstract

Accurate forecasting is extremely important for managers and technology planners in a rapidly evolving global environment. In this paper we apply the Gompertz model to Telecommunications growth in different countries. We conclude that although most of the European countries converge to approximately the same saturation level, using traditional diffusion models could artificially force convergence based on the historical data leading to over estimate or under-estimate of saturation level. The question for planners is how to improve these forecasts. One approach is to select the saturation level carefully based on other information available to the planner. We will show that analogy and interpolation using observed trends from other countries with similar characteristics could also produce good forecasts. The paper uses Greece and Italy to illustrate this approach.

Keywords: Technological innovations diffusion; Gompertz model, short term forecast; Mobile telephony; synthesised forecasting

JEL Classification: C44, O32, O33, O50

Suggested Citation

Aravantinos, Elias and Fallah, M. Hosein, A Methodology to Improve the Mobile Diffusion Forecasting: the Case of Greece (April 2006). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=981985 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.981985

Elias Aravantinos (Contact Author)

Stevens Institute of Technology ( email )

Wesley J. Howe School of Technology Management
Hoboken, NJ 07030
United States

M. Hosein Fallah

Stevens Institute of Technology - School of Business ( email )

Hoboken, NJ 07030
United States

HOME PAGE: http://personal.stevens.edu/~hfallah/html/research_team.html

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