A Methodology to Improve the Mobile Diffusion Forecasting: the Case of Greece

Abstract

Accurate forecasting is extremely important for managers and technology planners in a rapidly evolving global environment. In this paper we apply the Gompertz model to Telecommunications growth in different countries. We conclude that although most of the European countries converge to approximately the same saturation level, using traditional diffusion models could artificially force convergence based on the historical data leading to over estimate or under-estimate of saturation level. The question for planners is how to improve these forecasts. One approach is to select the saturation level carefully based on other information available to the planner. We will show that analogy and interpolation using observed trends from other countries with similar characteristics could also produce good forecasts. The paper uses Greece and Italy to illustrate this approach.

Keywords: Technological innovations diffusion; Gompertz model, short term forecast; Mobile telephony; synthesised forecasting

JEL Classification: C44, O32, O33, O50