Investment Returns Under Right- and Left-Wing Governments in Australasia

Abstract

This paper considers the link between ruling political parties and stock, property, and bond returns in Australasia. Australia and New Zealand provide an ideal setting as their political systems allow a precise examination of the influences of political parties. We find higher inflation under left-leaning governments and this flows through to higher property returns during their terms. Stock markets tend to do better during right-leaning governments when inflation is lower. While there is no clear political cycle in total bond returns we find bond capital losses during terms governed by the left and capital gains are evident under right-wing governments.

Keywords: presidential puzzle, political cycle, investment returns, stock market, real estate market, property returns, bond market

JEL Classification: G14, G15