Using Principal Component Analysis to Explain Term Structure Movements: Performance and Stability

32 Pages Posted: 14 May 2007

See all articles by Gloria M. Soto

Gloria M. Soto

University of Murcia - Faculty of Business and Economics

Date Written: 2004

Abstract

This paper evaluates the performance of a kind of interest rate model that has increasingly been attracting the attention of the financial industry in recent years and which relies on principal component analysis to extract risk factors. Focusing on the Spanish bond market, our empirical analysis reveals that interest rate movements can be summarized by three principal components, related to the level, the steepness and the curvature of the yield curve. This three-principal component model is able to offer a balanced explanation of interest rate shocks and bond returns across maturities and overcomes typical one- and two-factor interest rate models. However, our results also reveal some variations with time in the principal components that point to the need to recognize the dynamic volatility structure of interest rates.

Keywords: interest rate, bond, risk management, factor model, principal component

JEL Classification: E43, G11

Suggested Citation

Soto, Gloria M., Using Principal Component Analysis to Explain Term Structure Movements: Performance and Stability (2004). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=985404 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.985404

Gloria M. Soto (Contact Author)

University of Murcia - Faculty of Business and Economics ( email )

Spain

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