Modeling the Impact of Real and Financial Shocks on Mercosur: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime

GATE Working Paper No. 07-01

24 Pages Posted: 31 May 2007 Last revised: 11 May 2010

See all articles by Jean-Pierre Allegret

Jean-Pierre Allegret

University of Lyon 2 - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE)

Alain Sand

University of Lyon 2 - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE)

Date Written: January 1, 2007

Abstract

This paper studies to what extent the diversity of exchange rate regimes within Mercosur exerts an influence on the feasibility of a monetary union in this area. A semi-structural VAR model is built for each country, including a set of international and domestic variables. Based on impulse response functions and forecast error decomposition, we conclude that differences of exchange rate regime explain significantly the divergences of economic dynamics triggered by foreign or domestic shocks. Second, we decompose the structural innovations generated by each country model into unobservable common and idiosyncratic components, using a state-space model. This last exercise, intended to assess the degree of policy coordination between the Mercosur members, did not disclose any common component for the structural innovations generated by the three national models.

Keywords: co-movement , cycles , Mercosur , optimum currency area , unobserved components model , VAR

JEL Classification: C32 , E32 , F42

Suggested Citation

Allegret, Jean-Pierre and Sand, Alain, Modeling the Impact of Real and Financial Shocks on Mercosur: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime (January 1, 2007). GATE Working Paper No. 07-01, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=988665 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.988665

Jean-Pierre Allegret (Contact Author)

University of Lyon 2 - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE) ( email )

93, chemin des Mouilles
Ecully, 69130
France

Alain Sand

University of Lyon 2 - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE) ( email )

93, chemin des Mouilles
Ecully, 69130
France

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