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Historic Turning Points in Real Estate

29 Pages Posted: 4 Jun 2007 Last revised: 28 Oct 2007

Robert J. Shiller

Yale University - Cowles Foundation; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Yale University - International Center for Finance

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Date Written: June 2007

Abstract

This paper looks for markers of ends of real estate booms or busts. The changes in market psychology and related indicators that occurred at real estate market turning points in the United States since the 1980s are compared with changes at turning points in the more distant past. In all these episodes changes in an atmosphere of optimism about the future course of home prices, changes in public interpretation of the boom, as well as evidence of supply response to the high prices of a boom, are noted.

Keywords: Home prices, Boom, Bubble, Regime change, Stock market, California, Florida

JEL Classification: R31

Suggested Citation

Shiller, Robert J., Historic Turning Points in Real Estate (June 2007). Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1610. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=991107

Robert J. Shiller (Contact Author)

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Yale University - International Center for Finance ( email )

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Yale University - Cowles Foundation ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/

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