Population Size, Concentration, and Civil War: A Geographically Disaggregated Analysis

36 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Havard Hegre

Havard Hegre

International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO); Uppsala University - Department of Peace and Conflict Research

Clionadh Raleigh

International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO); University of Colorado at Boulder

Date Written: June 1, 2007

Abstract

Why do larger countries have more armed conflict? This paper surveys three sets of hypotheses forwarded in the conflict literature regarding the relationship between the size and location of population groups: Hypotheses based on pure population mass, on distances, on population concentrations, and some residual state-level characteristics. The hypotheses are tested on a new dataset-ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Events Dataset)-which disaggregates internal conflicts into individual events. The analysis covers 14 countries in Central Africa. The conflict event data are juxtaposed with geographically disaggregated data on populations, distance to capitals, borders, and road networks. The paper develops a statistical method to analyze this type of data. The analysis confirms several of the hypotheses.

Keywords: Population Policies, Social Conflict and Violence, Demographics, Country Population Profiles, Health Indicators

Suggested Citation

Hegre, Havard and Raleigh, Clionadh, Population Size, Concentration, and Civil War: A Geographically Disaggregated Analysis (June 1, 2007). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4243, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=991435

Havard Hegre

International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) ( email )

Oslo
N-0260 Oslo
Norway

HOME PAGE: http://www.prio.no

Uppsala University - Department of Peace and Conflict Research ( email )

Box 514
Uppsala, 75120
Sweden

Clionadh Raleigh (Contact Author)

International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) ( email )

Oslo
N-0260 Oslo
Norway

University of Colorado at Boulder ( email )

1070 Edinboro Drive
Boulder, CO 80309
United States

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