Economic Factors Affecting Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Reporting

Abstract

The public release of the 2004-2005 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data raised a number of questions given the increase in the number and percentage of higher-priced home mortgage loans and continued differentials across demographic groups. Here we assess three possible explanations for the observed increase in 2005 over 2004: (1) changes in lender business practices; (2) changes in the risk profile of borrowers; and (3) changes in the yield curve environment. Results suggest that after controlling for the mix of loan types, credit risk factors, and the yield curve, there was no statistically significant increase in reportable volume for loans originated directly by lenders during 2005, though indirect, wholesale originations did significantly increase. Finally, given a model of the factors affecting results for 2004-2005, we predict that 2006 results will continue to show an increase in the percentage of loans that are higher priced when final numbers are released in September 2007.

Keywords: HMDA, mortgage, subprime

JEL Classification: G21, G28