Role of Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change
Harvard University - Department of Economics
AEI-Brookings Joint Center Working Paper No. 07-11
Using climate change as a prototype motivating example, this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty for the economics of catastrophes. The paper shows that having an uncertain amplifying or scaling parameter (which is updated by Bayesian learning) induces a critical "tail thickening" of posterior-predictive distributions. Such thickened tails have strong implications for applications of expected utility theory to situations (like climate change) where a catastrophe is theoretically possible because a priori knowledge cannot place sufficiently narrow bounds on overall damages. In principle, the impact of an uncertain scale of damages on cost-benefit analysis outweighs the impact of discounting.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 26
Keywords: climate change, catastrophes
JEL Classification: H00
Date posted: June 11, 2007