Fire in the Brazilian Amazon: A Spatially Explicit Model for Policy Impact Analysis

27 Pages Posted: 30 Jun 2007

See all articles by Eugenio Y. Arima

Eugenio Y. Arima

Hobart and William Smith Colleges - Department of Environmental Studies

Cynthia S. Simmons

Michigan State University - Department of Geography

Robert T. Walker

Michigan State University - Department of Geography

Mark A. Cochrane

South Dakota State University - GIScience Center of Excellence

Abstract

This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farm-gate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of field management and deforestation fires to simulate the impact of road-paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development.

Suggested Citation

Arima, Eugenio Y. and Simmons, Cynthia S. and Walker, Robert T. and Cochrane, Mark A., Fire in the Brazilian Amazon: A Spatially Explicit Model for Policy Impact Analysis. Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 47, No. 3, pp. 541-567, August 2007. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=997444 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9787.2007.00519.x

Eugenio Y. Arima (Contact Author)

Hobart and William Smith Colleges - Department of Environmental Studies ( email )

Geneva, NY 14456
United States

Cynthia S. Simmons

Michigan State University - Department of Geography ( email )

Agriculture Hall
East Lansing, MI 48824-1122
United States

Robert T. Walker

Michigan State University - Department of Geography ( email )

311 Natural Science Building
East Lansing, MI 48824-1115
United States
517-432-7058 (Phone)
517-432-1671 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.geo.msu.edu/facstaff/walker/walker.html

Mark A. Cochrane

South Dakota State University - GIScience Center of Excellence ( email )

1021 Medary Ave.
Wecota Hall, Box 506B
Brookings, SD 57007-0895
United States

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