Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?

42 Pages Posted: 3 Jul 2007 Last revised: 18 Aug 2010

See all articles by David E. Bloom

David E. Bloom

Harvard University - T.H. Chan School of Public Health; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

David Canning

Harvard University - T.H. Chan School of Public Health

Guenther Fink

Bocconi University

Jocelyn Finlay

Harvard University - Harvard School of Public Health

Date Written: July 2007

Abstract

Increases in the proportion of the working age population can yield a "demographic dividend" that enhances the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters of an economic growth model with a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980 and investigate whether the inclusion of age structure improves the model's forecasts for the period 1980 to 2000. We find that including age structure improves the forecast, although there is evidence of parameter instability between periods with an unexplained growth slowdown in the second period. We use the model to generate growth forecasts for the period 2000 to 2020.

Suggested Citation

Bloom, David E. and Canning, David and Fink, Guenther and Finlay, Jocelyn, Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth? (July 2007). NBER Working Paper No. w13221, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=998004

David E. Bloom (Contact Author)

Harvard University - T.H. Chan School of Public Health ( email )

677 Huntington Avenue
Boston, MA MA 02115
United States
617-432-0654 (Phone)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

David Canning

Harvard University - T.H. Chan School of Public Health ( email )

677 Huntington Avenue
Boston, MA MA 02115
United States

Guenther Fink

Bocconi University ( email )

Via Sarfatti, 25
Milan, MI 20136
Italy

Jocelyn Finlay

Harvard University - Harvard School of Public Health ( email )

1875 Cambridge Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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