Russia 2010: It's a Russian Bear, Not a Bull!

Deutsche Bank Research Paper

35 Pages Posted: 5 Jul 2007

See all articles by Roland Beck

Roland Beck

European Central Bank (ECB)

Moritz Schularick

University of Bonn - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Date Written: March 31, 2003

Abstract

This study explores scenarios for economic development in Russia in the coming decade. A novel method - combining scenario technique and empirical growth theory - permits the inclusion of key political and institutional factors in a quantitative economic framework. The political, economic, institutional and international trends analysed make a strong case for a baseline scenario in which Russian investment rates will rise only moderately up to 2010. Against the background of optimistic growth projections pinned on the hope of a rapid improvement of the investment climate our baseline scenario calls for more realism. Alternative scenarios are conceivable but less likely: events could take a turn for the better, if a favourable combination of economic and political conditions leads to a second transition. But downside scenarios are possible, too.

Keywords: Russia, economic growth

JEL Classification: O43, O 47, O51, O11, O14

Suggested Citation

Beck, Roland and Schularick, Moritz, Russia 2010: It's a Russian Bear, Not a Bull! (March 31, 2003). Deutsche Bank Research Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=998431 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.998431

Roland Beck (Contact Author)

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Moritz Schularick

University of Bonn - Department of Economics ( email )

Bonn
Germany

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

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