Tail Behaviour of the Euro

43 Pages Posted: 6 Jul 2007

Date Written: 2005


This paper empirically analyses risk in the Euro relative to other currencies. Comparisons are made between a sub period encompassing the final transitional stage to full monetary union with a sub period prior to this. Stability in the face of speculative attack is examined using Extreme Value Theory to obtain estimates of tail exchange rate changes. The findings are encouraging. The Euro's common risk measures do not deviate substantially from other currencies. Also, the Euro is stable in the face of speculative pressure. For example, the findings consistently show the Euro being less risky than the Yen, and having similar inherent risk to the Deutsche Mark, the currency that it is essentially replacing.

Keywords: Extreme Value Theory, Tail Behaviour, GARCH, The Euro

JEL Classification: G15, F31

Suggested Citation

Cotter, John, Tail Behaviour of the Euro (2005). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=998771 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.998771

John Cotter (Contact Author)

University College Dublin ( email )

School of Business, Carysfort Avenue
Blackrock, Co. Dublin
353 1 716 8900 (Phone)
353 1 283 5482 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://https://johncotter.org/

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