Predicting Stock Price Movements: Regressions Versus Economists

11 Pages Posted: 10 Jul 2007 Last revised: 15 Jun 2013

Date Written: November 24, 2008


The forecasting performance of the Livingston survey and traditional prediction models of stock prices is analysed. The survey forecasts look similar to those from a "too large" prediction model: poor out-of-sample performance and too sensitive to recent and irrelevant information.

Keywords: Livingston survey, out-of-sample forecasts, overfitting, recency bias

JEL Classification: G12

Suggested Citation

Söderlind, Paul, Predicting Stock Price Movements: Regressions Versus Economists (November 24, 2008). Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 17, pp. 869-874, 2010, U. of St. Gallen Law & Economics Working Paper No. 2007-23, Available at SSRN:

Paul Söderlind (Contact Author)

University of St. Gallen ( email )

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