Responsiveness of Polar Sea Ice Extent to Air Temperature 1979-2016

Abstract

Detrended correlation analysis of mean monthly sea ice extent with air temperature at an annual time scale in both Polar Oceans shows the expected negative correlation in 14 out of 36 cases studied. The other 22 cases, including the high profile case of September sea ice extent in the Arctic, show no evidence that temperature alone explains sea ice extent. We conclude that other factors such as wind, clouds, solar irradiance, and ocean circulation may be relevant in the study of differences in mean monthly sea ice extent for the same calendar month from year to year.

Keywords: sea ice extent, Arctic, Antarctic, detrended correlation, global warming, climate change, attribution