Existing Estimates, New Estimates, and New Interpretations of World War I and its Aftermath

Abstract

The paper examines the official Commerce Department estimates of gross national product for 1909-1928 and finds that they are far inferior to the less commonly used Kendrick GNP estimates. The paper then derives a revised version of the Kendrick series that alters significantly the representation of annual movements in the Kendrick series before 1919. This endorsement of a revised Kendrick GNP series in place of the official Commerce Department estimates before 1929 suggests new interpretations of the effect of World War I on the American economy and the nature and cause of the depression of 1921.