Heterogeneous Trends of Animal Product Consumption in the US: Evidence from Grocery Purchase Data

Abstract

Over the past two decades, U.S. meat consumption has remained high while purchases of plant-based alternatives have grown, raising questions about whether consumer behavior is shifting. Answering this question is difficult: surveys overstate meat avoidance due to social-desirability bias, and aggregated data obscure heterogeneity across households and regions. To address these challenges, we use a nationally representative household panel (2004-2020) linked with ingredient-level product data and develop a machine-learning-based classification of grocery purchases. We show that, despite modest growth in aggregate meat purchases, the share of households buying no meat rises by about 10% and the share buying no animal products nearly doubles, revealing growing polarization in dietary behavior. These patterns predate the introduction of modern plant-based meat alternatives, whose limited market share cannot explain the observed changes. Demographic analyses indicate that growing meat- and animal product-avoidance is driven largely by population turnover rather than behavioral change within existing consumers. Our findings reconcile persistently high aggregate meat consumption with the increasing visibility of meat avoidance.