E Pluribus, Pauciores (Out of Many, Fewer): Diversity and Birth Rates

Abstract

Women who live in less racially concentrated areas, and from smaller racial groups within an area, have robustly lower birth rates, with one standard deviation resulting in 0.064 fewer children. This pattern is not driven by omitted local characteristics, holds for many races and time periods, multiple countries, and when diversity is instrumented by immigration shocks. Diversity is associated with lower marriage rates, and delayed marriage and childbirth. These patterns are related to homophily preferences for same-race marriage, and social trust. The rise in diversity since 1970 explains 20% to 44% of the US birth rate decline during that period.

Keywords: Diversity, Fertility, Birth Rates, Race, Homophily, Trust

JEL Classification: J11, J12, J13, J15