Voting in the Heat of the Moment: Climate Change Salience and Electoral Behavior

Abstract

We examine the impact of short-term temperature changes on voting behavior in the Brazilian presidential elections from 2010 to 2018, focusing on the candidacy of Marina Silva, a prominent pro-environment politician. Using data on municipality level voting and daily wet bulb temperature, we find that an increase in temperature on election day increases votes for Marina Silva. We argue that this effect is driven by the salience of climate change issues, which influences last-minute voting decisions. Our analysis also shows that temperature variations in the days preceding the election have a limited impact on voting outcomes, highlighting the transient nature of climate salience effects.

Keywords: Climate Change, Voting Behavior, Salience

JEL Classification: Q54, D72, O13