Optimal preclinical models for human dose projection of SARS-CoV-2 small molecule direct-acting antivirals

37 Pages Posted: 19 Sep 2025

See all articles by Francesca Toselli

Francesca Toselli

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Sofie Jacobs

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Els Scheers

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Tom Jacobs

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Jordi Doijen

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Joyce Hereijgers

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Ken Keustermans

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Liese Aerts

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Marjolein van Heerden

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Marnix Van Loock

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Stephen W. Mason

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Mario Monshouwer

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Ellen Van Damme

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Florence Herschke

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, driven by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has highlighted the urgent need for effective therapeutics, particularly as limitations of existing antiviral treatments persist. Establishing the proper strategy to set target concentrations for human dose projection is essential for any novel drug development project. In this study, we investigated the translatability of various preclinical models, specifically in vitro A549-hACE2 cells and air-liquid interface human nasal epithelial cultures, and in vivo Syrian golden hamsters and K18-hACE2 transgenic mice, using 3-chymotrypsin-like protease (3CLpro) inhibitors as model direct-acting antivirals. We assessed the minimal efficacious concentrations in these models of both ensitrelvir (ETV) and nirmatrelvir (NTV) co-dosed with ritonavir (Paxlovid) and compared this to clinical human data. Notably, in vitro models and the K18-hACE2 mice proved to be the most predictive for human efficacious exposures. Interestingly, lower efficacious exposures were needed in the more severe K18-hACE2 mouse model than in the Syrian golden hamster model for mild infection. Overall, we recommend applying a factor of 4-fold to the in vitro 90% effective concentration (EC90) for a conservative estimate of human efficacious exposure and recommend validation using K18-hACE2 mice. These insights are critical for guiding the development of effective SARS-CoV-2 therapeutics and optimizing clinical trial design.

Note:
Funding declaration: This work was supported by Janssen Research & Development, LLC. This project has also been funded in part with federal funds from the Office of the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), under OTA numbers HHSO100201700018C.

Conflict of Interests: The authors declare the following competing interests: FT, SJ, ES, TJ, JD, LA, MVH MVL, MM, EVD and FH were/are employees of Johnson & Johnson and may own stock or stock options of Johnson & Johnson. JH and KK are employees of Charles River Laboratories, a contract research organization and may possess stocks of Johnson & Johnson.

Ethical Approval: Housing conditions and experimental procedures were approved by the ethics committee of Johnson & Johnson Research & Development (Belgium), license number LA1100119.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, direct-acting antiviral, human dose projection, preclinical model translatability, K18-hACE2 mouse, air-liquid interface.

Suggested Citation

Toselli, Francesca and Jacobs, Sofie and Scheers, Els and Jacobs, Tom and Doijen, Jordi and Hereijgers, Joyce and Keustermans, Ken and Aerts, Liese and van Heerden, Marjolein and Van Loock, Marnix and Mason, Stephen W. and Monshouwer, Mario and Van Damme, Ellen and Herschke, Florence, Optimal preclinical models for human dose projection of SARS-CoV-2 small molecule direct-acting antivirals. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5475069 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5475069

Francesca Toselli

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Sofie Jacobs

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Els Scheers

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Tom Jacobs

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Jordi Doijen

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Joyce Hereijgers

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Ken Keustermans

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Liese Aerts

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Marjolein Van Heerden

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Marnix Van Loock

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Stephen W. Mason

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Mario Monshouwer

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Ellen Van Damme (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Florence Herschke

affiliation not provided to SSRN

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