Behavioral Micro-Foundations for the Space Commons: A Policy Toolkit

Abstract

Satellite megaconstellations are transforming the space economy, yet the same commercial expansion that connects remote communities and monitors climate change is contaminating observations from the Hubble Space Telescope, increasing collision risks to irreplaceable scientific assets, and overwhelming governance institutions designed for a handful of state actors. The behavioral forces driving this expansion (status competition, prestige signaling, systematic discounting of long-term costs) are precisely the forces that Cold War-era frameworks fail to address. Because these patterns are predictable, they are also designable. This paper develops the Astro-Economic Behavioral (AEB) Framework, which proposes that the psychological forces producing governance failures can be redirected through choice architecture toward sustainable outcomes without binding enforcement. Three theoretical pillars, Narrative Capital, Conspicuous Exploration, and Behavioral Governance, identify how symbolic value, costly signaling, and decision defaults shape space governance outcomes. These pillars inform four policy instruments that operate through existing international regimes, requiring no new treaty authority: sustainable-practice defaults, a reputational index, loss-framed site designations, and time-bounded safety zones. For each instrument, pre-specified quasi-experimental evaluation designs enable evidence-based iteration. The framework contributes to innovation policy by providing behavioral micro-foundations for governance in emerging sectors where rapid technological change outpaces institutional adaptation.

Keywords: innovation policy, technology governance, space governance, behavioral economics