Talent Discovery, Layoff Risk and Unemployment Insurance

62 Pages Posted: 2 Aug 2017 Last revised: 16 Feb 2023

See all articles by Marco Pagano

Marco Pagano

- Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF); Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF); Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

Luca Picariello

University of Naples Federico II - Department of Economic and Statistical Sciences; - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: April 14, 2020

Abstract

In talent-intensive jobs, workers' quality is revealed by their performance. This enhances productivity and earnings, but also increases layoff risk. We show that, if firms compete for talent, they cannot insure workers against this risk, so that the more risk-averse workers will choose less
quality-revealing jobs. This lowers expected productivity and salaries. Our model predicts that public unemployment insurance corrects this inefficiency, increasing employment in talent-sensitive industries. This prediction is consistent with the distribution of U.S. employment across occupations and states. Unemployment insurance dominates legal restrictions on firms' dismissals, which penalize more talent-sensitive firms and thus depress expected productivity.

Keywords: Talent, Learning, Layoff Risk, Unemployment Insurance

JEL Classification: D83, J24, J63, J65

Suggested Citation

Pagano, Marco and Picariello, Luca, Talent Discovery, Layoff Risk and Unemployment Insurance (April 14, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3012277 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3012277

Marco Pagano (Contact Author)

- Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF) ( email )

Via Cintia
Complesso Monte S. Angelo
Naples, Naples 80126
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Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF)

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Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)

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Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

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HOME PAGE: http:/www.ecgi.org

Luca Picariello

University of Naples Federico II - Department of Economic and Statistical Sciences ( email )

Italy

- Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF) ( email )

Via Cintia
Complesso Monte S. Angelo
Naples, Naples 80126
Italy

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