Download This PaperRare Homicides, Criminal Behavior, and the Returns to Police Labor
48 Pages Posted: 29 Apr 2018 Last revised: 22 Feb 2021
Date Written: Feb 21, 2021
Abstract
We evaluate the impact of increased policing on criminal behavior by leveraging the quasi-random timing of homicides in jurisdictions where homicides are rare and spur increases in police labor. Across jurisdictions, we evaluate offending immediately before and after a rare homicide using a regression discontinuity design in conjunction with high-frequency incident data. We reveal substantial, and precisely estimated declines in violent, drug-related, and total crime that are robust to a host of changes in the analysis. We contribute by plausibly separating deterrence behavior from incapacitation effects, and isolating the impacts of increased police labor.
Keywords: Homicide, Policing, Deterrence, Regression Discontinuity in Time, Event Study
JEL Classification: J18, K14, K42, H76
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