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John Muellbauer

University of Oxford - Department of Economics

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Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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  • University of Oxford - Department of Economics

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SCHOLARLY PAPERS

37

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126

Scholarly Papers (37)

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1.

Consumer Credit Conditions in the United Kingdom

Bank of England Working Paper No. 314
Number of pages: 62 Posted: 28 Feb 2007
Emilio Fernández Corugedo and John Muellbauer
Bank of England and University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 456 (157,043)
Citation 30

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2.

Household Decisions, Credit Markets and the Macroeconomy: Implications for the Design of Central Bank Models

BIS Working Paper No. 306
Number of pages: 60 Posted: 05 May 2010
John Muellbauer
University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 257 (296,486)
Citation 21

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Household decisions, housing markets, wealth, business cycle models, consumption

3.

The Housing Market, Household Portfolios and the German Consumer

ECB Working Paper No. 1904
Number of pages: 72 Posted: 17 Jun 2016
Felix Geiger, John Muellbauer, Manuel Rupprecht and Manuel Rupprecht
Deutsche Bundesbank, University of Oxford - Department of Economics and Deutsche BundesbankMünster University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 239 (319,183)
Citation 16

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Consumption, Credit Conditions, Credit Market Liberalization, Household Debt, Housing Collateral, Monetary Transmission

4.

Tobin LIVES: Integrating Evolving Credit Market Architecture into Flow of Funds Based Macro-Models

ECB Working Paper No. 1581
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 12 Sep 2013
John V. Duca and John Muellbauer
Oberlin College and University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 203 (375,182)
Citation 1

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finance and the real economy, financial crisis, consumption, credit constraints, household portfolios

5.

Credit Conditions and the Real Economy: The Elephant in the Room

Downloads 170 (442,467)

Credit Conditions and the Real Economy: The Elephant in the Room

BIS Paper No. 64q
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 19 Jun 2012
John Muellbauer and David Williams
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Oxford - New College
Downloads 159 (469,070)

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Credit Conditions and the Real Economy: The Elephant in the Room

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8386
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 19 May 2011
John Muellbauer and David Williams
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Oxford - New College
Downloads 11 (1,598,105)
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Consumption, credit conditions, house prices, wealth

6.

Credit Standards and the Bubble in US House Prices: New Econometric Evidence

BIS Paper No. 64o
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 19 Jun 2012
John V. Duca, John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy
Oberlin College, University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Oxford - Nuffield Department of Medicine
Downloads 161 (464,454)

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7.

Consumption and Wealth: New Evidence from Italy

Bank of Italy Temi di Discussione (Working Paper) No. 1304
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 10 Dec 2020 Last Revised: 12 Dec 2020
Riccardo De Bonis, Danilo Liberati, John Muellbauer and Concetta Rondinelli
Bank of Italy, Bank of Italy, University of Oxford - Department of Economics and Bank of Italy
Downloads 137 (534,155)
Citation 16

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liquid and illiquid assets, permanent income, credit conditions

8.

Inflation Dynamics and Trade Openness

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6346
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 28 May 2008
Janine Aron and John Muellbauer
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 65 (933,592)
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Inflation dynamics, modelling inflation, trade openness

9.

Housing, Credit and Consumer Expenditure

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 6782
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 12 Jun 2008
John Muellbauer
University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 59 (980,173)
Citation 4
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Consumer expenditure, credit channel, housing wealth

10.

Macroeconomics and Consumption

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP11588
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 01 Nov 2016
John Muellbauer
University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 55 (1,010,164)
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asset prices., Consumption, credit constraints, DSGE, finance and the real economy, financial crisis, Household portfolios, macroeconomic policy models

11.

Forecasting Macroeconomic Dynamics using a Calibrated Data-Driven Agent-based Model

Number of pages: 72 Posted: 11 Nov 2024
Samuel Wiese, Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa, Joel Dyer, Jose MORAN, Marco Pangallo, Francois Lafond, John Muellbauer, Anisoara Calinescu and J. Doyne Farmer
University of Oxford, Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences, University of Oxford, University of Oxford, CENTAI Institute, University of Oxford - Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford - Department of Economics, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford and University of Oxford - Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School
Downloads 45 (1,121,190)
Citation 3

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Agent-based models, Bayesian estimation, Economic forecasting

12.

Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 04 Dec 2002
Janine Aron and John Muellbauer
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 39 (1,196,171)
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Monetary policy transmission, multi-step forecasting, growth, structural breaks

13.

Forecasting (and Explaining) Us Business Cycles

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 19 Oct 2004
John Muellbauer and L. Nunziata
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Padua - Department of Economics
Downloads 37 (1,222,651)
Citation 1
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Business cycles, multi-step forecasting, fiscal policy, oil shocks, monetary policy

14.

Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from the UK, Japan and the US

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7876
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 19 Jul 2010
Janine Aron, John V. Duca, John Muellbauer, Keiko Murata and Anthony Murphy
University of Oxford - Department of Economics, Oberlin College, University of Oxford - Department of Economics, Government of Japan - Cabinet Office and University of Oxford - Nuffield Department of Medicine
Downloads 36 (1,236,159)
Citation 3
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consumption, credit conditions, housing collateral and housing wealth

15.

Housing Market Dynamics and Regional Migration in Britain

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5832
Number of pages: 57 Posted: 10 Nov 2006
Gavin Cameron, John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy
University of Oxford - Department of Economics (Deceased), University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Oxford - Nuffield Department of Medicine
Downloads 35 (1,249,711)
Citation 1
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Regional migration, house prices, expected capital gains, contiguity, Great Britain, regional panel

16.

Forecasting Macroeconomic Dynamics Using a Calibrated Data-Driven Agent-Based Model

Number of pages: 70 Posted: 21 May 2025
Samuel Wiese, Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa, Joel Dyer, José Moran, John Muellbauer, Marco Pangallo, Francois Lafond, Anisoara Calinescu and J. Doyne Farmer
University of Oxford, University of Oxford, University of Oxford, Macrocosm, University of Oxford - Department of Economics, CENTAI Institute, University of Oxford - Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford and University of Oxford - Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School
Downloads 33 (1,277,121)

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Agent-based models, Bayesian estimation, Economic forecasting

17.

Was There a British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5619
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 05 Jul 2006
Gavin Cameron, John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy
University of Oxford - Department of Economics (Deceased), University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Oxford - Nuffield Department of Medicine
Downloads 32 (1,290,922)
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Bubble, ripple effect, house prices

18.

Credit, the Stock Market and Oil: Forecasting Us GDP

Number of pages: 52 Posted: 11 Sep 2001
John Muellbauer and L. Nunziata
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Padua - Department of Economics
Downloads 32 (1,290,922)
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Lucas critique, macroeconomic forecasts, monetary policy transmission, oil prices, the credit channel, the financial accelerator, US recession

19.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in South Africa: Evidence from Micro-Data

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP9735
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 19 Nov 2013
Janine Aron, Kenneth Creamer, John Muellbauer and Neil Rankin
University of Oxford - Department of Economics, University of the Witwatersrand, University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of the Witwatersrand
Downloads 21 (1,436,435)
Citation 2
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consumer prices, CPI, exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, food prices, goods prices, monetary policy, services prices

20.

Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa: 1994-2004

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5831
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 10 Nov 2006
Janine Aron and John Muellbauer
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 19 (1,459,862)
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Inflation targeting, monetary policy, South Africa

21.

House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8360
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 04 May 2011
John V. Duca, John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy
Oberlin College, University of Oxford - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Downloads 15 (1,500,778)
Citation 22
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credit standards, house price to rent ratio, house prices, subprime mortgages

22.

Shifting Credit Standards and the Boom and Bust in US House Prices

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8361
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 04 May 2011
John V. Duca, John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy
Oberlin College, University of Oxford - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Downloads 14 (1,509,872)
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credit standards, house prices, subprime mortgages

23.

Estimates of Personal Sector Wealth for South Africa

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 29 Nov 2004
Janine Aron and John Muellbauer
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 14 (1,509,872)
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National balance sheets, personal sector wealth, saving

24.

Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7986
Number of pages: 85 Posted: 14 Nov 2010
Janine Aron and John Muellbauer
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 12 (1,526,714)
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defaults, foreclosures, mortgage arrears, mortgage payment delinquencies, mortgage possessions, UK mortgage market, unobserved components model

25.

Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a More Open Economy in South Africa

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6992
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 02 Dec 2008
Janine Aron and John Muellbauer
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 12 (1,526,714)
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inflation dynamics, modelling producer prices, trade openness

26.

Does Aggregating Forecasts by CPI Component Improve Inflation Forecast Accuracy in South Africa?

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7895
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 19 Jul 2010
Janine Aron and John Muellbauer
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 10 (1,541,665)
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CPI Sub-Components, Disaggregation, Error Correction Models, Evaluating Forecasts, Model Selection, Multivariate Time Series, Sectoral Inflation

27.

Some Issues in Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in South Africa

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7183
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 11 Mar 2009
Janine Aron and John Muellbauer
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 9 (1,548,648)
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forecasting inflation, homeowner costs in the CPI, PPI inflation, South Africa

28.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Policy in South Africa

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8153
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 18 Jan 2011
Janine Aron, Greg Farrell, John Muellbauer and Peter J. N. Sinclair
University of Oxford - Department of Economics, Government of the Republic of South Africa - South African Reserve Bank, University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Birmingham - Department of Economics
Downloads 7 (1,561,096)
Citation 1
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asymmetic pass-through, exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, falling pass-through, import prices, monetary policy, South Africa, trade openness

29.

Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption: Evidence from South Africa

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8800
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 01 Mar 2012
Janine Aron and John Muellbauer
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 6 (1,571,455)
Citation 5
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consumption, credit conditions, credit market liberalisation, household debt, housing collateral, housing wealth, liquid and illiquid wealth

30.

Consumption, Land Prices and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Japan

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7269
Number of pages: 71 Posted: 19 May 2009
John Muellbauer and Keiko Murata
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and Government of Japan - Cabinet Office
Downloads 6 (1,566,597)
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interest rate effect on consumption, Japan's lost decade, Land prices and consumption, monetary transmission in Japan

31.

New Methods for Forecasting Inflation, Applied to the US

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7877
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 19 Jul 2010
Janine Aron and John Muellbauer
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 5 (1,571,455)
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Error Correction Models, Evaluating Forecasts, Model Selection, Multivariate Time Series

32.

Housing Markets and the Economy: The Assessment

Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 24, Issue 1, pp. 1-33, 2008
Posted: 02 Jul 2008
John Muellbauer
University of Oxford - Department of Economics

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house prices, consumption, monetary policy, credit conditions, institutional change

33.

Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa Since 1994

Journal of African Economies, Vol. 16, Issue 5, pp. 705-744, 2007
Posted: 30 Jun 2008
Janine Aron and John Muellbauer
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Oxford - Department of Economics

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34.

Data Feature: Earnings Biases in the United Kingdom Regional Accounts: Some Economic Policy and Research Implications

The Economic Journal, Vol. 110, Issue 464, June 2000
Posted: 16 Aug 2000
Gavin Cameron and John Muellbauer
University of Oxford - Department of Economics (Deceased) and University of Oxford - Department of Economics

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35.

Earnings, Unemployment, and Housing: Evidence from a Panel of British Regions

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2404
Posted: 27 Apr 2000
Gavin Cameron and John Muellbauer
University of Oxford - Department of Economics (Deceased) and University of Oxford - Department of Economics

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36.

The Housing Market and Regional Commuting and Migration Choices

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 1945
Posted: 25 Nov 1998
John Muellbauer and Gavin Cameron
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Oxford - Department of Economics (Deceased)

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37.

Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and Emu

Posted: 19 Nov 1998
Duncan Maclennan, John Muellbauer and Mark Stephens
University of Glasgow - Department of Urban Studies, University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Glasgow

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