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Peter Tillmann

University of Giessen

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

23

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14

Scholarly Papers (23)

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1.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions

BOFIT Discussion Paper No. 14/2022
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 06 Feb 2023
David Finck and Peter Tillmann
University of Giessen and University of Giessen
Downloads 1,693 (26,337)

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Container Trade, Supply Chain, Inflation, Narrative Identification, Sign Restrictions

2.

The Emotions of Monetary Policy

Number of pages: 60 Posted: 21 Jan 2025 Last Revised: 08 Aug 2025
Mamadou-Lamine Barry, Brenton Joey Bruns, Sinem Kandemir, Jens Klose, Victor Smirnov and Peter Tillmann
University of Giessen, University of Giessen, University of Giessen, THM Technische Hochschule Mittelhessen, THM Technische Hochschule Mittelhessen and University of Giessen
Downloads 431 (170,764)
Citation 1

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3.

The Spillover Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies: Breaks, Asymmetries and Fundamentals

Bank of Korea WP 2016-1
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 11 Jan 2016
Geun-Young Kim, Hail Park and Peter Tillmann
Research Dept., Bank of Korea, Kyung Hee University and University of Giessen
Downloads 378 (195,842)
Citation 4

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Conventional-Unconventional monetary policy, Spillovers, Emerging markets, VAR-X model, Asymmetries

4.

Monetary Policy and the Fiscal Talk in the Bundestag

Number of pages: 31 Posted: 20 May 2025 Last Revised: 10 Jun 2026
Peter Tillmann
University of Giessen
Downloads 232 (331,797)

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monetary-fiscal interaction, borrowing costs, monetary policy shocks, sentiment

5.

The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Shocks: Evidence from Swedish Microdata

Number of pages: 54 Posted: 12 Apr 2024 Last Revised: 19 Apr 2026
David Finck, Mathias Klein and Peter Tillmann
German Federal Bank, Sveriges Riksbank - Research Division and University of Giessen
Downloads 225 (342,220)
Citation 1

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Global supply chain shocks, producer prices, micro data, firm characteristics, price setting

6.

Capital Inflow Shocks and House Prices: Aggregate and Regional Evidence from Korea

Downloads 181 (418,025)

Capital Inflow Shocks and House Prices: Aggregate and Regional Evidence from Korea

Bank of Korea Working Paper No. 2013-2
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 10 Jan 2015
Peter Tillmann
University of Giessen
Downloads 73 (863,736)

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Capital Inflows, House Prices, Money Policy, Sign Restrictions, VAR

Capital Inflow Shocks and House Prices: Aggregate and Regional Evidence from Korea

Journal of East Asian Economic Integration Vol. 17, No. 2 (June 2013) 129-159
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 27 Aug 2013 Last Revised: 04 Nov 2016
Peter Tillmann
University of Giessen
Downloads 72 (871,518)

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Capital Inflows, House Prices, Monetary Policy, Sign Restrictions, VAR

Capital Inflow Shocks and House Prices: Aggregate and Regional Evidence from Korea

Bank of Korea WP 2013-2
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 20 Mar 2015
Peter Tillmann
University of Giessen
Downloads 36 (1,267,060)

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Capital inflows, House prices, Monetary policy, Sign restrictions, VAR

7.

Fiscal Policy in the Bundestag: Textual Analysis and Macroeconomic Effects

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 03 Apr 2023
Albina Latifi, Viktoriia Naboka-Krell, Peter Tillmann and Peter Winker
University of Giessen, University of Giessen, University of Giessen and University of Giessen - Department of Economics
Downloads 154 (482,968)

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text mining, word embeddings, VAR models, identification, government spending

8.

Disagreement about Fiscal Policy *

Number of pages: 66 Posted: 07 Jan 2025 Last Revised: 19 Jul 2025
Peter Tillmann, Peter Winker, Albina Latifi and Viktoriia Naboka-Krell
University of Giessen, University of Giessen - Department of Economics, University of Giessen and University of Giessen
Downloads 123 (584,619)

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fiscal policy, disagreement, uncertainty, business cycle, natural language processing JEL classification: C89, E60, E62

9.

Inflation Disagreement and Monetary Transmission in Korea

Bank of Korea No. 2024-09
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 29 Jul 2024
Boreum Kwak, Seri Shim and Peter Tillmann
Bank of Korea - Economic Research Institute, Kangwon National University and University of Giessen
Downloads 120 (600,462)

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survey expectations, disagreement, monetary transmission, inflation targeting, uncertainty

10.

Lending Standards and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Loan Survey Releases

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 09 Jan 2022
Lucas Hafemann and Peter Tillmann
affiliation not provided to SSRN and University of Giessen
Downloads 120 (596,393)

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loan survey, credit supply, risk-taking, instrumental variable local projections, shock identification

11.

Inflation Expectations and a Conservative Central Banker: A Natural Experiment

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 16 Oct 2025 Last Revised: 09 Jun 2026
Moritz Grebe and Peter Tillmann
Deutsche Bundesbank and University of Giessen
Downloads 114 (621,896)

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Monetary policy delegation, central bank governor, household survey, inflation uncertainty, trust JEL classification: E52, E43, E32

12.

Inflation Targeting, Aggregation, and Inflation Persistence: Evidence from Korean CPI Components

Seoul Journal of Economics, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 233-254, 2012
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 05 Sep 2012
Peter Tillmann
University of Giessen
Downloads 107 (654,668)
Citation 1

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inflation persistence, sectoral inflation, aggregation, inflation targeting, monetary policy strategy, dynamic factor model

13.

Gains from Gunboats: U.S. Aircraft Carriers and Financial Markets in East Asia

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 07 Jan 2025 Last Revised: 08 Oct 2025
Peter Tillmann and Jinyeong Yun
University of Giessen and Bank of Korea
Downloads 99 (694,528)

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Geopolitical risk, U.S. military presence, China, financial markets, Asia JEL codes: F51, E44, F21

14.

Safe-Haven Bond Flows and Fiscal Policy Disagreement 

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 30 Mar 2026 Last Revised: 31 Mar 2026
Jana Röder, Peter Tillmann, Peter Winker and Jinyeong Yun
University of Giessen, University of Giessen, University of Giessen - Department of Economics and Bank of Korea
Downloads 82 (790,029)

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capital flows, disagreement, policy uncertainty, safe asset

15.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Number of pages: 48 Posted: 22 Feb 2023
David Finck and Peter Tillmann
German Federal Bank and University of Giessen
Downloads 78 (860,052)

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Container Trade, Supply Chain, Inflation, Narrative Identification, Sign Restrictions

16.

Geopolitics in the Boardroom: How German Managers Respond to the War in Ukraine

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 16 Jan 2025
Moritz Grebe, Sinem Kandemir and Peter Tillmann
Justus Liebig University Giessen - Department of Economics, University of Giessen and University of Giessen
Downloads 75 (837,727)

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war, Twitter, geopolitical risk, machine learning, business cycle, firm expectations

17.

Debating the Bundeswehr

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 03 Mar 2025 Last Revised: 18 Jul 2025
Albina Latifi, Viktoriia Naboka-Krell, Peter Tillmann and Peter Winker
University of Giessen, University of Giessen, University of Giessen and University of Giessen - Department of Economics
Downloads 69 (891,180)

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defense spending, text analysis, fiscal policy, local projections, business cycle

18.

The FOMC Attention Cycle *

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 13 Jan 2025
David Finck and Peter Tillmann
German Federal Bank and University of Giessen
Downloads 52 (1,041,696)

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monetary policy, communication, Federal Reserve, information acquisition JEL Classification: E58

19.

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Europe: Does it Fit or Does it Fail?

Bundesbank Series 1 Discussion Paper No. 2005,04
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 08 Jun 2016
Peter Tillmann
University of Giessen
Downloads 43 (1,145,425)

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New Keynesian Phillips Curve, present-value model, marginal cost, VAR, bootstrap

20.

Inflation Targeting and Inflation Persistence in Asia

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8046
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 22 Nov 2010
Stefan Gerlach and Peter Tillmann
Central Bank of Ireland and University of Giessen
Downloads 38 (1,209,354)
Citation 2
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Asia, Inflation persistence, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy strategy

21.

The Asymmetric Effect of Supply Chain Pressure on Inflation

Number of pages: 8 Posted: 28 Nov 2023
Peter Tillmann
University of Giessen
Downloads 32 (1,290,922)
Citation 5

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inflation, supply chains, local projections

22.

Not all ECB meetings are created equal 

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 29 Oct 2025
Sinem Kandemir and Peter Tillmann
University of Giessen and University of Giessen
Downloads 21 (1,436,435)

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monetary policy, expectations, central bank communication, monetary policy committee, text analysis JEL classification: E58, E43

23.

Rating Changes and Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets: Evidence from Active and Passive Funds

Economics Letters, Forthcoming
Posted: 02 Aug 2018 Last Revised: 02 Jun 2019
Christina E. Bannier, Thomas Heyden and Peter Tillmann
Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Bain & Company - Bain & Company Germany Inc. and University of Giessen

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Emerging Markets, Event Study, Portfolio Flows, Passive Funds, Sovereign Ratings