London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - Department of Non-Communicable Diseases Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, University of Oxford - Bennett Institute of Applied Data Science, University of Oxford - Bennett Institute of Applied Data Science, University of Oxford - Bennett Institute of Applied Data Science, University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Population Health, affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Oxford, University of Oxford - Bennett Institute of Applied Data Science, University of Oxford - Bennett Institute of Applied Data Science, University of Oxford, University of Oxford - Bennett Institute of Applied Data Science, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, King’s College London, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine