Coherence Shifts in Probabilistic Inference Tasks

35 Pages Posted: 29 Sep 2008 Last revised: 26 Apr 2009

See all articles by Andreas Glöckner

Andreas Glöckner

Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods; University of Cologne

Tilmann Betsch

University of Erfurt

Nicola Schindler

University of Erfurt

Date Written: April 1, 2009

Abstract

The fast-and-frugal heuristics approach to probabilistic inference assumes that individuals often employ simple heuristics to integrate cue information that commonly function in a non-reciprocal fashion. Specifically, the subjective validity of a certain cue remains stable during the application of a heuristic and is not changed by the presence or absence of another cue. The parallel-constraint-satisfaction model, in contrast, predicts that information is processed in a reciprocal fashion. Specifically, it assumes that subjective cue validities interactively affect each other and are modified to coherently support the favored choice. Corresponding to the model’s simulation, we predicted the direction of such coherence shifts.Cue validities were measured before, after (Exp. 1) and during judgment (Exp. 2 & 3). Coherence shifts were found in environments involving real-world cue knowledge (weather forecasts) and in a domain for which the application of fast-and-frugal heuristics has been demonstrated (city-size tasks). The results indicate that subjective cue validities are not fixed parameters, but that they are interactively changed to form coherent representations of the task.

Keywords: Judgment, Connectionism, Parallel Constraint Satisfaction, Fast-and-Frugal Heuristics, Adaptive Decision Making, Bounded Rationality

Suggested Citation

Glöckner, Andreas and Betsch, Tilmann and Schindler, Nicola, Coherence Shifts in Probabilistic Inference Tasks (April 1, 2009). MPI Collective Goods Preprint, No. 2008/14. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1160146 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1160146

Andreas Glöckner

Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods ( email )

Kurt-Schumacher-Str. 10
D-53113 Bonn, 53113
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.coll.mpg.de/team/page/andreas_gloeckner

University of Cologne ( email )

Richard-Strauss-Str. 2
Köln, 50931
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://soccco.uni-koeln.de/andreas-gloeckner.html

Tilmann Betsch (Contact Author)

University of Erfurt ( email )

Internationales Buro
Nordhaeuser Str. 63
D - 99089 Erfurt
Germany

Nicola Schindler

University of Erfurt ( email )

Internationales Buro
Nordhaeuser Str. 63
D - 99089 Erfurt
Germany

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
96
Abstract Views
1,019
rank
270,791
PlumX Metrics