Authoritarian Elections and Leadership Succession, 1975-2004

Abstract

Why do non-democratic regimes hold elections they might lose? In this paper, I develop a model in which authoritarian rulers agree to positive levels of electoral risk primarily to gain information that reduces the risk of their violent removal from office via a coup d’etat or revolution. Using a comprehensive database documenting how the world’s leaders exited from office, I provide evidence that elections help authoritarian regimes regulate succession to their top posts. There is evidence of both regime effects (e.g., leaders of multi-party authoritarian regimes are more likely to exit electorally and less likely to exit violently) and electoral-cycle effects (violent and peaceful exits vary systematically across the electoral cycle in multi-party regimes).

Keywords: authoritarian elections, leadership succession