A Radical Change in Traffic Law: Effects on Fatalities in the Czech Republic

23 Pages Posted: 27 Apr 2010 Last revised: 11 Feb 2017

See all articles by Josef Montag

Josef Montag

Charles University, Faculty of Law - Department of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: May 1, 2010

Abstract

Background: This study examines short- and long-run effects of a new — stricter — road traffic law on traffic accident-related fatalities in the Czech Republic. The law introduced tougher punishments through the introduction of a demerit point system and a manifold increase in fines, together with augmented authority of traffic police.

Methods: Identification is based on difference-in-differences methodology, with neighbouring countries serving as a control group.

Results: There was a sharp, 33.3%, decrease in accident-related fatalities during the first three post-reform months. This translates into 127 saved lives (95% confidence interval: 51, 204). The decline was, however, temporary; the estimates of the effects going beyond the first year are around zero. Unique data on traffic police activity reveal that police resources devoted to traffic law enforcement gradually declined.

Conclusions: Tougher penalties have significant, but often short-lived effects. Weaker enforcement in the aftermath of such reforms may explain the absence of long-run effects.

Keywords: traffic law, traffic safety, deterrence, enforcement

JEL Classification: J28, I12, I18

Suggested Citation

Montag, Josef, A Radical Change in Traffic Law: Effects on Fatalities in the Czech Republic (May 1, 2010). 5th Annual Conference on Empirical Legal Studies Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1595882 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1595882

Josef Montag (Contact Author)

Charles University, Faculty of Law - Department of Economics ( email )

nam. Curieovych 7
Prague 1, 11640
Czech Republic

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