People Don't Use the Shortest Path

Abstract

Most recent route choice models, following either Random Utility Maximization or rule-based paradigm, require explicit enumeration of feasible routes. The quality of model estimation and prediction is sensitive to the appropriateness of consideration set. However, few empirical studies of revealed route characteristics have been reported in the literature. Such study could also help practitioners and researchers evaluate widely applied shortest path assumptions. This study aims at bridging the gap by evaluating morning commute routes followed by residents at the Twin Cities, Minnesota. Accurate GPS and GIS data were employed to reveal routes people utilized. Findings from this study could also provide guidance for future efforts in building better travel demand models.

Keywords: random utility maximization, route choice, model estimation, transportation, geographic information science

JEL Classification: R40, R41