Which Petroleum Prices Best Explain Retail Fuel Price Changes?

Midwestern Business and Economic Review, No. 50, Spring 2015, pp.1-10.

19 Pages Posted: 9 May 2014 Last revised: 21 Feb 2015

See all articles by Vance Ginn

Vance Ginn

Texas Public Policy Foundation

Date Written: February 2015

Abstract

This paper examines which petroleum prices best explain changes in gasoline and diesel prices during three distinct periods of fuel price volatility during the 2003 to 2010 period. The results indicate that spot retail fuel prices are best explained by their futures prices over most periods, indicating that these futures markets provide valuable information about future spot fuel prices no matter the level of fuel price volatility.

Keywords: petroleum prices; rolling forecasts; structural breaks

JEL Classification: C53, Q47

Suggested Citation

Ginn, Vance, Which Petroleum Prices Best Explain Retail Fuel Price Changes? (February 2015). Midwestern Business and Economic Review, No. 50, Spring 2015, pp.1-10.. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2434159 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2434159

Vance Ginn (Contact Author)

Texas Public Policy Foundation ( email )

901 Congress Avenue
Austin, TX 78701
United States
7134785255 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.texaspolicy.com/experts/detail/vance-ginn

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