Distrust in Experts and the Origins of Disagreement

Abstract

Persistent disagreement about substance and expert credibility often go hand in hand. Prominent examples include disagreements in economics, climate science, and medicine. We argue that disagreement arises because individuals overinterpret how much they can learn when both substance and expert credibility are uncertain. Our proposed learning bias predicts that: 1) Disagreement about credibility drives disagreement about substance; 2) First impressions of credibility drive long-lasting disagreement; 3) Distrust is difficult to unravel; 4) Encountering experts in different order generates disagreement; and 5) Confirmation bias and/or its opposite arise endogenously. These effects provide a theory of the origins of disagreement.

Keywords: disagreement, trust, polarization, learning, expectations, experts

JEL Classification: A11, D01, D03, D83, D84, G02