Fracking and Mortgage Default

Abstract

This paper ?nds that increased hydraulic fracturing, or \"fracking,\" along the Marcellus Formation in Pennsylvania had a signi?cant, negative effect on mortgage credit risk. Controlling for potential endogeneity bias by utilizing the underlying geologic properties of the land as instrumental variables for fracking activity, we ?nd that mortgages originated before the 2007 boom in shale gas, were, post-boom, signi?cantly less likely to default in areas with greater drilling activity. The weight of evidence suggests that the greatest bene?t from fracking came from strengthening the labor market, consistent with the double trigger hypothesis of mortgage default. The results also suggest that increased fracking activity raised house prices at the county level.

Keywords: mortgage defaults, hydraulic fracking, house prices, shale gas

JEL Classification: G21, Q51, R11