The Information Role of Earnings Conference Call Tone: Evidence from Stock Price Crash Risk

Abstract

This paper investigates how the disclosure tone of earnings conference calls predicts future stock price crash risk. Using U.S. public firm earnings conference call transcripts from 2010 to 2015, we find that firms exhibiting more pessimistic tone during the current year-end call experience higher stock price crash risk in the coming year. Additional analyses suggest managerial truthful disclosure as a possible explanation underlying the predictability of conference call tone. Our results shed light on the long-term information role of the tone of corporate voluntary disclosure by exploring the setting of extreme future downside risk where managers may have incentives to communicate truthfully and disclose bad news.

Keywords: Stock price crash risk, Earnings conference calls, Tone, Textual analysis, Voluntary disclosure

JEL Classification: D80, G10, G12, G14, G30, M41