Never Forget the First Time: The Persistent Effects of Corruption and the Rise of Populism in Italy

67 Pages Posted: 10 Dec 2018 Last revised: 25 Jun 2019

See all articles by Arnstein Aassve

Arnstein Aassve

Bocconi University - Department of Policy Analysis and Public Management

Gianmarco Daniele

University of Milan - Faculty of Law; Bocconi University

Marco Le Moglie

Bocconi University

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: November 1, 2018

Abstract

The paper studies the long term impact of corruption on trust towards institutions. Previous studies have demonstrated that exposure to corruption may lower institutional trust in the short run. Whether those short term effects translate into a persistent effect is not known. We study the onset of a corruption shock that took place in Italy between 1992 and 1994. Using recent data from the Trustlab project, coordinated by the OECD, we find that young first time voters exposed to the corruption scandal still today, 25 years later, exert significantly lower institutional trust. A follow up survey reveals that their exposure to corruption also affected their current voting preferences. In particular, those young first time voters exposed to the corruption were more likely to prefer populist parties at the 2018 national elections.

Keywords: Corruption, Institutional trust, Populism, First-time voter, Italy

JEL Classification: P16, D72, D73

Suggested Citation

Aassve, Arnstein and Daniele, Gianmarco and Le Moglie, Marco, Never Forget the First Time: The Persistent Effects of Corruption and the Rise of Populism in Italy (November 1, 2018). BAFFI CAREFIN Centre Research Paper No. 2018-96, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3293794 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3293794

Arnstein Aassve

Bocconi University - Department of Policy Analysis and Public Management ( email )

Via Roentgen 1
Milan, 20136
Italy

Gianmarco Daniele (Contact Author)

University of Milan - Faculty of Law ( email )

Via Festa del Perdono, 7
20122 Milano
Italy

Bocconi University ( email )

Via Sarfatti 25
Milan, MI 20136
Italy

Marco Le Moglie

Bocconi University ( email )

Via Roentgen 1
Milan, 20136
Italy

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